Not every neoindustrial win is a factory.
Some wins are the layers that make factories behave: the software, networks, and scientific breakthroughs that compress timelines, reduce waste, and unlock entirely new design spaces.
I call these “Enablement & Skip Bets” for a reason:
- Enablement = things you need to scale (integration, orchestration, measurement).
- Skip bets = things that might let you jump ahead a decade… or disappear into the lab forever.
Both matter. One pays the bills. The other changes the map.
Subsegments
- Enabling Software & Networking
- On‑Chain Systems (Crypto, DePIN)
- Quantum Compute
- Bio‑Engineering (Human & Non‑Human)
- Physics & Material Sciences
Subsegment Map
| Subsegment | Description | Outcome | Key KPIs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enabling Software & Networking | Engineering software, digital twins, and edge networks linking machines and grids. | Optimized workflows and capital utilization through software integration. | Revenue/employee; ROIC; ARR growth |
| On‑Chain Systems (Crypto, DePIN) | Distributed physical infrastructure and coordination networks built on crypto rails. | Programmable markets distributing capital, productivity, and ownership. | DePIN market cap; network participation; RWA market cap |
| Quantum Compute | Hardware + algorithms for optimization, simulation, and materials science. | Practical quantum compute layer for industrial applications. | % compute using quantum; qubit fidelity; qubit growth |
| Bio‑Engineering (Human & Non‑Human) | Synthetic biology, gene editing, and biomanufacturing for health, agriculture, and materials. | Biological manufacturing systems producing food, medicine, and bio‑materials. | % disease addressed; crop yield growth; safety events |
| Physics & Material Sciences | Discovery and commercialization of advanced materials and polymers. | Continuous innovation improving strength, efficiency, and performance limits. | % of domestic physics papers; commercialization rate |
Enablement: The Integration Layer
Enabling Software & Networking
Industry has no shortage of machines. It has a shortage of coordination.
The modern factory is a cyber-physical system:
- sensors generating noisy reality
- software turning it into decisions
- machines executing those decisions
- and humans supervising the whole stack
The hard part is integration: connecting legacy equipment, new robots, energy systems, and supply chains into one coherent operating model. The best enabling software makes production feel:
- measurable
- debuggable
- repeatable
- and continuously improvable
If you want a simple north star KPI: does the software increase utilization without increasing chaos?
What to watch:
- Digital twins that actually get used (not just sold)
- Edge networking that survives industrial environments
- Maintenance and quality systems that reduce downtime without adding bureaucracy
Coordination: Markets That Act Like Software
On‑Chain Systems (Crypto, DePIN)
Most crypto commentary is financial cosplay. The interesting subset is coordination: using programmable rails to fund, provision, and operate physical networks.
The bull case:
- better capital formation for long-tail infrastructure
- open participation and incentive alignment
- faster network buildouts where traditional operators move slowly
The bear case:
- speculation overwhelms utility
- incentives attract low-quality participants
- real-world operations don’t tolerate adversarial behavior
The nuance is that some physical networks are amenable to decentralized coordination—especially where measurement is objective and service is modular. The question is whether the system can produce reliability, not just excitement.
What to watch:
- Proof-of-service that can’t be gamed
- Participation that grows because the service is useful (not because token prices are)
- Clear unit economics at the edge (the “operator” can make money without narrative)
Skip Bets: New Compute, New Biology, New Matter
Quantum Compute
Quantum has been “five years away” for a long time, which is exactly what frontier technologies look like until they aren’t.
The best near-term framing is not general computing. It’s specific advantage in constrained problems:
- materials simulation
- optimization under heavy constraints
- certain classes of sensing and security
What to watch:
- error correction progress that translates into usable runtimes
- hybrid workflows (classical + quantum) that deliver measurable gains
- narrow, real deployments in simulation-heavy industries
Bio‑Engineering (Human & Non‑Human)
Bio is the ultimate manufacturing platform: self-replicating, self-assembling, and astonishingly complex.
Neoindustrial bio shows up as:
- biomanufacturing (chemicals, enzymes, materials)
- agriculture resilience and yield
- therapeutics and diagnostics that scale like production lines
The constraint stack is regulation, safety, and time-to-trust. When bio wins, it often wins quietly—because the product is a molecule, not a gadget.
What to watch:
- manufacturing cost curves (not just scientific novelty)
- speed from design → test → scale
- safety as an operational capability, not just compliance
Physics & Material Sciences
Materials are the hidden variable in almost every industrial story.
New materials:
- reduce weight without sacrificing strength
- increase heat tolerance
- improve energy density
- enable new manufacturing processes
The difference between “cool research” and “neoindustrial impact” is commercialization: can the material be produced, certified, and integrated into real supply chains?
What to watch:
- pilot lines and scale-up infrastructure
- qualification cycles with large customers
- repeatable manufacturing processes (the real moat)
The Big Picture
Enablement & skip bets are where timelines compress.
If Scaled Energy is “get the electrons,” and Modern Manufacturing is “ship the machines,” this sector is “make the whole system legible and improvable.” Sometimes that’s just better software. Sometimes it’s a new compute primitive, a new organism, or a new material that changes what’s even possible.
Most of these bets will fail. The few that work will re-price the future.